Saudi Arabia Suspected of Secret Ballistic Missile Program

Saudi Arabia was suspected of secretly developing the ability to produce long-range ballistic missiles, according to satellite images and analysis by weapons experts, raising concerns about a possible new development in the military competition between Riyadh and regional rival Iran.

The satellite images appeared to show a new facility at the Al-Watah missile base, southwest of Riyadh, that experts believed could be designed to produce and test rocket engines. However, the available images did not prove that the facility was already operational or that Saudi Arabia was actually producing complete ballistic missiles.

Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Missile Programs

The reported Saudi missile activity attracted attention because Riyadh has repeatedly criticized Iran’s ballistic missile program, which Saudi officials have described as a major regional security concern, while Iran has continued to develop and test different types of missiles and says its broader nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also said in a 2018 interview with CBS’s 60 Minutes that Saudi Arabia would follow Iran if Tehran developed a nuclear weapon, saying that the kingdom did not want such weapons but would not allow itself to remain without them if Iran obtained one.

Experts therefore viewed the possibility of a Saudi ballistic missile production capability as particularly significant because long-range missiles can potentially travel thousands of kilometers and can be designed to carry different types of warheads.

Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear weapons expert who examined satellite imagery of the Saudi facility with colleagues, warned that analysts should not underestimate Saudi Arabia’s ambitions or its ability to develop more advanced missile technology. The images showed large industrial buildings, security structures and what appeared to be a rocket-engine test stand, features that experts said were consistent with a facility designed to work on solid-fuel rocket motors.

A Possible Missile Factory Near Riyadh

The facility identified in the satellite images was located at the Al-Watah military site, around 200 kilometers southwest of Riyadh, an area that had already been associated with Saudi Arabia’s ballistic missile forces.

According to experts who reviewed the images, including Michael Elleman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and Joseph Bermudez of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, several structures appeared to resemble facilities used for rocket-engine production and testing.

One of the most important features was what appeared to be a rocket-engine test stand, which experts said could indicate that the facility was intended for solid-fuel rocket development. Solid-fuel missiles are considered particularly useful for military purposes because they can generally be stored for longer periods and launched more quickly than many liquid-fuel systems.

At the same time, experts stressed that satellite images alone could not establish whether the facility had become fully operational, how advanced its production capabilities were, or exactly what type of missile Saudi Arabia might have intended to manufacture.

China and Saudi Missile Technology

Another major question was where Saudi Arabia could have obtained the technical knowledge needed to build such a facility.

China was considered one possible source because Beijing had previously supplied Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and had also helped other countries develop missile-related production capabilities. Experts examining the Saudi facility noted similarities between the apparent rocket-engine test stand and Chinese designs.

Saudi Arabia had previously turned to China for military technologies that Washington was unwilling to provide, including certain missile and unmanned aircraft systems, making possible Chinese involvement an important question for analysts. However, the available evidence did not establish that China or Pakistan had directly helped build the suspected Saudi facility.

Regional Security Concerns

The suspected Saudi missile program was also viewed in the wider context of tensions involving Iran and Israel, both of which have advanced missile capabilities.

Iran has invested heavily in ballistic missiles for decades, while Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied more heavily on its modern fighter aircraft and American-made military systems. Experts therefore questioned why Riyadh would also need to develop its own long-range missile capability.

Michael Elleman argued that Saudi Arabia’s air force had well-trained pilots and advanced aircraft, but the country’s military operations still depended heavily on logistical and technical support from the United States. Developing an independent missile capability could therefore provide Riyadh with another military option that would not depend entirely on American support.

Could the Program Lead to U.S. Sanctions?

If Saudi Arabia were confirmed to be producing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the development could create serious problems with Washington because the United States has traditionally opposed the spread of missile technology that could contribute to nuclear weapons programs.

At the time, the issue was particularly sensitive because relations between Saudi Arabia and members of the U.S. Congress were already under pressure following the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and criticism of Saudi Arabia’s role in the war in Yemen.

Experts also pointed to the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international framework designed to limit the spread of technologies that can contribute to the development of long-range missiles capable of carrying significant payloads.

The satellite images did not prove that Saudi Arabia had completed a long-range ballistic missile production program, but they raised questions about whether Riyadh was seeking greater independence in missile technology and whether the kingdom was preparing for a future in which it could develop and produce more advanced weapons at home.